Research claims ledger
Current ASRA findings and historical infrastructure records retain separate scopes. A completed study, a preserved artifact, and an operational system answer different questions.
Current ASRA findings
Both studies are completed. The forecast assessment confirms risk information; the policy test did not confirm its preregistered utility claim.
Context adds short-horizon BTC risk information beyond historical volatility persistence: H+C improves both primary losses against HAR-basis on the frozen independent assessment.
Risk information, not directional alpha, a trading signal, sizing approval or execution authority.
Inspect independent risk forecastPolicy translation test
Forecast information survived; the preregistered policy-utility claim did not.
Better risk forecasts did not automatically become a better risk policy.
Inspect policy translation testHistorical infrastructure records
Each row answers three questions: what is being said, what supports it, and where the claim stops.
Evidence
On exposed historical zero-friction replay, R15_RAW_1X returned +1,463.45% FULL with 1.955 daily Sharpe and -46.03% minute-open MaxDD; RECENT returned +108.63% with 1.719 Sharpe and -27.55% MaxDD.
Evidence
The extensions produced positive gross results with distinct growth-risk profiles. Their paired comparisons did not establish consistent incremental superiority, so neither extension was promoted; BLEND also had greater drawdown than VOLNORM.
Evidence
The bound source-role runtime passed 427 offline checks and 20 mutation categories under the WSS-primary / asynchronous REST-audit contract.
Evidence
A frozen three-job scheduler creates immutable hourly-RV input manifests, two-baseline forecast-state batches, and one-hour forward-outcome batches with exact lineage and idempotent append behavior.
Evidence
A manual read-only health command validates all six evidence stores, cross-layer lineage, the PR90 cron block, three latest scheduler statuses, freshness, and bounded coverage from one captured source snapshot.
Evidence
The initial 23 Jul 2026 health snapshot was WATCH / BOOTSTRAP with 15 complete scheduled lineages out of 21 matured expected cycles and zero failing checks.
Evidence
Bounded HTTPS capture, exact raw bytes, canonical CSV normalization, independent verification, and immutable run bundles are implemented for one fixed Binance USD-M lifecycle.
Evidence
The fixed completed-run tree is reconstructed from bounded records, checked for exact layout and byte identity, and delegated to the authoritative verifier.
Evidence
Exact manifests, observation references, typed metrics, run hashes, and result hashes are canonical and reject contradictory nested state.
Evidence
A shared causal strategy contract replays completed BTCUSDT bars with next-exact-5m-open state timing, authenticated Funding, explicit transition friction, deterministic outputs, and independent endpoint reconciliation.
Evidence
The contracts are asset-neutral, but the concrete retained research system and public-data runtime currently demonstrated are BTCUSDT-specific.
Evidence
One retained BTC strategy has positive retrospective historical metrics and a recorded forward-observation handoff. Separate account telemetry is not a live trading PnL series attributable to this research strategy.
Evidence
There is no broker integration, order routing, position management, entry permission, short permission, leverage authority, or order API in the retained BTC runtime.
Non-negotiable separation
The strongest possible research result still does not create an order, position, entry permission, short permission, leverage decision, or execution authority.
A result may be reproducible, verified, and useful for research.
Research findings do not authorize paper or live trading. Execution systems and read-only account telemetry remain a separate supporting layer.